There is an urban-rural split as well as a partisan split in how Americans view inflation, one of the driving issues in this fall’s elections, according to analysts.
There is an urban-rural split as well as a partisan split in how Americans view inflation, one of the driving issues in this fall’s elections, said three analysts on the farmdoc daily blog on Monday. Rural Americans are less optimistic than urbanites that inflation will ease, and rural Republicans are the least optimistic of all.
“Inflation affects households differently and rural households are often harder hit,” said analysts Jonathan Coppess and Maria Kalaitzandonakes of the University of Illinois and Brenna Ellison of Purdue University, pointing to a variety of studies. “Rural consumers often have longer commutes, which increases the impact of transportation costs, and a smaller number of food options can translate to less flexibility as food prices rise.”
Fourteen percent of rural Republicans taking part in a University of Illinois survey last month said they expected inflation would improve by November. More than twice as many non-metro Democrats — 32% — said they expected an improvement in the coming three months.
By contrast, 44.5% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans living in metropolitan areas expected inflation to become better: 11-12 points more than their rural counterparts. Among independents, 19% of rural residents and 25% of urban residents said inflation would improve by November, a narrower rural-urban gap.
Researchers have found political allegiance colors voters’ perspectives on inflation and the economy. Members of the party in power hold sunnier views than those belonging to the minority party.
Higher food and energy prices can have a more pronounced effect on rural households, said Coppess, Kalaitzandonakes, and Ellison. “Other issues, including declining income and disappearing jobs, increasing age, distance to grocery stores, and fewer grocery options, can make matters worse.”
Rural voters tend to be more fiscally and socially conservative than urban Americans. Former president Donald Trump won two of every three rural votes in 2020, according to the Pew Research Center. In 2016, he won three out of five rural votes. “The political split between America’s rural areas and its suburban and urban locales remained substantial in 2020,” said Pew in 2021.
Early this month, Pew said the economy was the No. 1 issue among registered voters for the presidential election; it was named by 93% of Trump voters and 68% of supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris. Health care was second at 65%, followed closely by Supreme Court appointments, foreign policy, violent crime, and immigration.
