The last piece of official inflation data to land before the Federal Reserve’s policymaking meeting next week was a shutdown-delayed report that showed the pace of price hikes remained stubborn in September and consumer spending waned from the month before.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve uses for its 2% target rate — rose 0.3% on a monthly basis, which lifted annual inflation to 2.8%, a rate last hit in April 2024, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department.
Gas prices were on the high side in September, and those helped to drive overall inflation higher. Food prices also rose for the second month in a row.
However, energy and food prices can be quite volatile (and influenced by one-time factors), so the Fed also closely watches the core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, as a way to gauge underlying inflation trends.
The core PCE index rose 0.2% from the month before, which slowed the annual rate to 2.8%.
Friday’s data came in largely as anticipated: Economists were expecting inflation to rise 0.2% from August and tick higher to 2.8%, according to FactSet.
Americans also reined in their purchases some in September after an August splurge. Spending rose 0.3% from August and was flat when accounting for inflation.
“Based on this and recent private sector data, one cannot avoid the fact that the condition of the US household down market is sour at best and weak at worst,” Joe Brusuelas, RSM US chief economist, wrote in a note Friday to investors. “Unless one lives in the upper spur of the K-shaped economy, it is easy to get the idea that at best down-market households are treading water at this time.”
